Confirmation Bias - How it affects our decision making?
Confirmation Bias - How it affects our decision making?
written by Senthil Kumar G
What is a Bias?
In general, a bias is a tendency or an inclination to prefer one person or thing to another or to favour one person or thing to another. These are called 'unconscious cognitive bias', as they happen unconsciously without our conscious effort, due to our learned assumptions, belief and attitudes that exists in our subconscious and it narrows down or blindfolds our cognitive thinking to a very limited perspective. Everyone has these biases and uses them as mental shortcuts for faster information-processing. These biases are developed over time as we accumulate life experiences and get exposed to different stereotypes.
Confirmation Bias is one of the most impactful unconscious biases, fondly called the 'The Grandaddy of all Biases'. It is the human tendency to gather and interpret new information, such that it confirms one’s preexisting belief. That is, people basically ignore information that contradicts their beliefs.
Let's say I believe that graduates coming out of IIT are extremely smart, and if they start a startup initiative, they will definitely be successful. One day, If I happen to a read a news article stating that a startup in town turns into a unicorn, I will be exited to look for the founder’s or co-founders' profile to check if any of them are from IIT. This behaviour of me looking for that specific data that confirms my belief, and ignoring the rest of the facts, is an act of confirmation bias.
Let’s take Amber Heard vs Johnny Depp defamation trial. Some say it is disempowering and a setback for women. While the supporters of Depp say, ‘Truth wins’. I am not trying to make any comments on the judgment here. But if you look from the perspective of confirmation bias, those who believe that this is a setback for women will look for data, and incidents confirming that belief and those who believe in ‘Truth wins’ will only see this case from that perspective. And in today's world, with behaviour and personality based personalised news feed, you are fed data that confirms and strengthens your view point.
Let's take another example, Person A believes that consuming non-veg food is a serious issue, and it has a significant negative impact on climate change. They only search out and read stories about how non-vegeterianism is destroying the world. As a result, Person A continues to confirm and support their current beliefs. Meanwhile, Person B believes that non-vegeterianism has nothing to do with climate change, and doesn't even believe in climate change as a serious issue in first place, and they only search out and read stories that discuss how climate change is a myth, why scientists are incorrect, how vegetarianism is trying to take over the world, and how we are all being fooled. As a result, Person B continues to confirm and support their current beliefs.
As you can understand from the examples above, it is very easy to succumb to confirmation bias, because we hardly question our one’s core assumptions/beliefs. Changing your mind is harder than it looks. The more you believe you know something, the more you filter and ignore all information to the contrary. You believe that there is God, and you will see data, and incidents confirming that belief, and if you don’t believe in God, you will see data confirming that as well.
How does one overcome Confirmation Bias?
It is not so simple, as these are unconscious. But there is a way out. Being self-aware that we have a bias towards a particular thing is the first step. By being aware of your biases and being mindful in our decision making process, we can shift the decision making from an unconscious state to a conscious state.
Another useful strategy is to play the role of a Devil's advocate before taking any critical decision. ie Making a counter-argument against our own idea. If you think X is right, argue from the perspective of X is wrong. For example, If you are a supporter of Amber Heard, play the role of Depp’s Advocate (No, I didn’t mean to say Depp as Devil here).
In an organisation setting, we might fall trap to confirmation biases, particularly in situations like group discussions. In such scenarios, we can pre-inform someone from our team to play the role of devil's advocate deliberately, and it might help in overcoming our confirmation bias.
I sincerely hope this article was helping in understanding confirmation bias, and spot it the next time you make them.
Share your learning
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Senthil is a Scientific Researcher turned Serious Game Designer, and a Game based Learning Facilitator, and is passionate about creating meaningful games that help people unleash their potential through play.
He is a mental model evangelist, and writes articles, focussed on powerful mental models and frameworks, in a simple language.
Confirmation Bias - How it affects our decision making?
Confirmation Bias - How it affects our decision making?
written by Senthil Kumar G
What is a Bias?
In general, a bias is a tendency or an inclination to prefer one person or thing to another or to favour one person or thing to another. These are called 'unconscious cognitive bias', as they happen unconsciously without our conscious effort, due to our learned assumptions, belief and attitudes that exists in our subconscious and it narrows down or blindfolds our cognitive thinking to a very limited perspective. Everyone has these biases and uses them as mental shortcuts for faster information-processing. These biases are developed over time as we accumulate life experiences and get exposed to different stereotypes.
Confirmation Bias is one of the most impactful unconscious biases, fondly called the 'The Grandaddy of all Biases'. It is the human tendency to gather and interpret new information, such that it confirms one’s preexisting belief. That is, people basically ignore information that contradicts their beliefs.
Let's say I believe that graduates coming out of IIT are extremely smart, and if they start a startup initiative, they will definitely be successful. One day, If I happen to a read a news article stating that a startup in town turns into a unicorn, I will be exited to look for the founder’s or co-founders' profile to check if any of them are from IIT. This behaviour of me looking for that specific data that confirms my belief, and ignoring the rest of the facts, is an act of confirmation bias.
Let’s take Amber Heard vs Johnny Depp defamation trial. Some say it is disempowering and a setback for women. While the supporters of Depp say, ‘Truth wins’. I am not trying to make any comments on the judgment here. But if you look from the perspective of confirmation bias, those who believe that this is a setback for women will look for data, and incidents confirming that belief and those who believe in ‘Truth wins’ will only see this case from that perspective. And in today's world, with behaviour and personality based personalised news feed, you are fed data that confirms and strengthens your view point.
Let's take another example, Person A believes that consuming non-veg food is a serious issue, and it has a significant negative impact on climate change. They only search out and read stories about how non-vegeterianism is destroying the world. As a result, Person A continues to confirm and support their current beliefs. Meanwhile, Person B believes that non-vegeterianism has nothing to do with climate change, and doesn't even believe in climate change as a serious issue in first place, and they only search out and read stories that discuss how climate change is a myth, why scientists are incorrect, how vegetarianism is trying to take over the world, and how we are all being fooled. As a result, Person B continues to confirm and support their current beliefs.
As you can understand from the examples above, it is very easy to succumb to confirmation bias, because we hardly question our one’s core assumptions/beliefs. Changing your mind is harder than it looks. The more you believe you know something, the more you filter and ignore all information to the contrary. You believe that there is God, and you will see data, and incidents confirming that belief, and if you don’t believe in God, you will see data confirming that as well.
How does one overcome Confirmation Bias?
It is not so simple, as these are unconscious. But there is a way out. Being self-aware that we have a bias towards a particular thing is the first step. By being aware of your biases and being mindful in our decision making process, we can shift the decision making from an unconscious state to a conscious state.
Another useful strategy is to play the role of a Devil's advocate before taking any critical decision. ie Making a counter-argument against our own idea. If you think X is right, argue from the perspective of X is wrong. For example, If you are a supporter of Amber Heard, play the role of Depp’s Advocate (No, I didn’t mean to say Depp as Devil here).
In an organisation setting, we might fall trap to confirmation biases, particularly in situations like group discussions. In such scenarios, we can pre-inform someone from our team to play the role of devil's advocate deliberately, and it might help in overcoming our confirmation bias.
I sincerely hope this article was helping in understanding confirmation bias, and spot it the next time you make them.
Share your learning
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Senthil is a Scientific Researcher turned Serious Game Designer, and a Game based Learning Facilitator, and is passionate about creating meaningful games that help people unleash their potential through play. He is a mental model evangelist, and writes articles, focussed on powerful mental models and frameworks, in a simple language.